Profit projections

Demo data

How big does this thing get, and when. Mix the customer count + tier blend to see the numbers.

Break-even

6 customers

Covers $303/mo fixed.

MRR at 25 customers

$1,450

Target tier mix.

Net profit at 50 customers

$2,331

After all COGS + overhead.

At 100 customers

$59,584 / yr

$4,965/mo profit.

MRR + net profit by customer count

Three tier-mix scenarios. Conservative leans Starter (50%/40%/10%); Target is 30%/50%/20%; Aggressive favors Pro (15%/45%/40%).

CustomersConservative MRRTarget MRRAggressive MRRTarget Net/moTarget Net/yr
10$480$580$705$224$2,686
25$1,200$1,450$1,763$1,014$12,169
50$2,400$2,900$3,525$2,331$27,974
100$4,800$5,800$7,050$4,965$59,584
250$12,000$14,500$17,625$12,868$154,414

Trajectory

What the numbers look like if customer adds line up with the build plan in CLAUDE.md.

  1. 1

    90 days

    10 paying · 10 paying

    $580MRR

    $224 net/mo

  2. 2

    6 months

    25 paying · on path to 50

    $1,450MRR

    $1,014 net/mo

  3. 3

    12 months

    75 paying · Pro tier momentum

    $4,350MRR

    $3,648 net/mo

  4. 4

    18 months

    150 paying · two-state

    $8,700MRR

    $7,599 net/mo

  5. 5

    24 months

    250 paying · hire #1 + state #3

    $14,500MRR

    $12,868 net/mo

Per-customer cost (monthly)

$5

  • Vercel$2.00
  • Cloudflare$0.75
  • Uptime monitor$0.30
  • Anthropic (maintenance)$0.50
  • Resend (share)$0.15
  • Storage + backups$0.20
  • Provisioning amortized$1.42
Fixed platform overhead (monthly)

$303

  • Instantly (cold email)$97/mo
  • HeyReach (LinkedIn)$79/mo
  • Supabase Pro$25/mo
  • Anthropic (ops daily)$60/mo
  • Google Places API$30/mo
  • Sender domains$12/mo
  • Sentry$0/mo
  • Inngest$0/mo

Per-tier margin

After per-customer COGS but before the fixed overhead (which is allocated across all customers).

Starter

$29/mo

$24contribution / mo
82% contribution margin

Standard

$59/mo

$54contribution / mo
91% contribution margin

Pro

$99/mo

$94contribution / mo
95% contribution margin

Assumptions

  • Conversion rate from cold demo to paid: 1.5-3% (industry benchmark for warm cold outreach to local SMB).
  • Annual churn: 18% blended (food + auto higher; professional services lower).
  • Anthropic spend per prospect (Researcher + Classifier + Designer + Builder + Reviewer + maintenance over year 1): ~$0.50.
  • One operator (Ben). No salary line item. Add $80K/yr once #2 joins.